Caracas, Moscow Play Cold War Games with Washington AS/COA Online 09/11/08

Leaders of Venezuela and Russia are conducting joint miltary operations. (AP Images)

At a time of strained relations between Washington and Moscow, Venezuela and Russia could cause further irritation by stepping up their military ties. On September 10, two nuclear-capable, long-range Russian bombers arrived in Venezuela on a training mission. This came within days of an announcement from Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez confirming joint military exercises with the Russian Navy in the Caribbean by early December.

Some speculate that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Chávez hope to play a geopolitical game in response to the U.S. backing of Georgia, Washington’s missile defense shield plans for eastern Europe, the reactivation of the U.S. Fourth Fleet in Caribbean waters, and NATO’s temporary deployment of its Maritime Group One in the Black Sea. Media outlets speculate that Russia’s moves to step up its presence in the Western Hemisphere raises Cold War specters.

But the reaction to joint naval operations from the United States has, thus far, been muted. As the Economist notes, “The public response from Washington has been a barely-stifled yawn.” In a September 8 press briefing, U.S. Department of State Spokesman Sean McCormark responded to a question about the planned naval operations by saying, “I suppose if it is, in fact, true, then they found a few ships that can make it that far.” A Navy Times article writes of similar indifference from the U.S. Department of Defense. Indeed, most of the Russian vessels date back to the Soviet era and some are riddled with mechanical problems. “Russia’s military must leap huge hurdles—financial, industrial, technical and professional—before it will ever be more than a regional, mostly defensive force,” reports Wired’s “Danger Room” blog in its coverage of Moscow’s plans to send a Cold War-era ship called Peter the Great to Venezuela.

Despite a seeming lack of concern emanating from Washington, the announcement about joint naval operations coincided with other signs of U.S.-Russo fractures. On September 8, U.S. President George W. Bush announced intentions to rescind the 123 Agreement (approved in May) with Russia on peaceful nuclear cooperation. “Unfortunately, given the current environment, the time is not right for this agreement,” said U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in a statement. And the arrival of bombers may have caused more raised eyebrows, with the State Department saying it plans to closely monitor the warplanes’ activities.

The Russo-Venezuelan military connection predates the joint exercises announced in the last few days. In 2006, Chávez made a $3 billion weapons purchase from Moscow followed by another deal a year later involving five submarines. More recently, Chávez visited Russia in July, when leaders strengthened ties in areas ranging from energy to technology sharing and Venezuela purchased more than 50 helicopters and 24 fighter planes.

The joint operations provided Chávez with another opportunity to rail against Washington. “What’s coming is a multipolar world in which Venezuela is a free country, that’s what’s coming,” said the Venezuelan leader following the planes’ arrival. Furthermore, a Venezuelan television show played tapes of Venezuelan military officers allegedly plotting against the president, prompting Chávez to call the program live, order an investigation, and rant against his foes. On Thursday, Chávez expelled the U.S. ambassador to show support for Bolivia, which expelled an ambassador a day earlier and saw the Bush administration reciprocate.

Read AS/COA’s coverage of the recent warming of Russo-Cuban relations.

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Americas’ Security Cooperation Revisited AS/COA Online 09/05/08

Brazilian Supertucanos in a military demonstration earlier this year. (AP Images)

Officials from 34 countries gather at the VIII Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas held in Banff, Canada, from September 2 to the 6. The central premise of the summit—first held in 1995—revolves around “confidence-building through cooperation and collaboration.” This year, topics include peacekeeping support in places like Haiti and generating security assistance for events such as the 2010 Winter Olympics in Canada. A recent event hosted by the Council of the Americas examined how the ministerial filled a void by allowing defense counterparts from countries across the Western Hemisphere to interact and thereby readied to cooperate in times of natural disasters or political disputes. Yet speakers at the COA meeting also raised a critique that the summit had yet to provide results beyond introductions and interactions.

This year’s summit comes at a crucial moment when several nations in the Western Hemisphere are beefing up their defense capabilities, enacting regional defense cooperation treaties, and when some intend to boost their status as weapon suppliers. Setting the example as host, Canada revealed its 20-year, $490 billion “Canada First Defense Strategy,” a detailed plan to modernize its armed forces and its military industry. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates also delivered a speech highlighting ongoing cooperation programs such as the recently approved Merida Initiative involving a U.S.-Mexico-Central America partnership to fight drug-related violence, Caribbean Community efforts to improve security on their waters, and the proposed South American Defense Council. “We have a collective dream: a free, prosperous, and secure hemisphere. By working together, we can transform that dream into reality and embrace the great promise and potential of the Americas,” added Gates.

Just two months ago, the United States reactivated its Fourth Naval Fleet drawing mixed reactions from South American leaders calling to establish a defense council to safeguard the region’s biodiversity and, more importantly, its hefty energy reserves. During a speech at AS/COA’s Latin American Cities Conference in São Paulo on July 10, U.S. Ambassador to Brazil Clifford Sobel raised the fact that some had suggested the fleet could have more aggressive purposes. “Let me be very clear. Let me use this forum to say it is not true,” asserted Sobel, saying the fleet will have no offensive capabilities and will instead serve to provide humanitarian support during natural disasters.

Using cash flow from the booming commodities markets, countries such as Brazil, Chile, and Venezuela have been modernizing their militaries. Brazil has doubled its military expenditure since the year 2000, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and reached an agreement with France to get the necessary technology to start building nuclear submarines in 2009. Blogger Sam Logan points out that Brazil—with plans to expand its ammunition industry—serves as South America’s champion arms supplier, selling army vehicles to Bolivia, and Supertucano planes to Colombia and Chile.

Meanwhile, Chile purchased 340 German tanks, frigates, submarines, and more than two dozen F-16 fighters. Venezuela also inked a deal with Russia this past July worth more than $3 billion, represented in Sukhoi fighters, helicopters, and air-defense missile systems.

Some analysts remain skeptical about the utility of the conference. Ray Walser of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, criticizes the lack of strategic and diplomatic meaning of the summit and suggests that effective partnerships require “actual friends and genuine partners.” While holding Caracas responsible for causing rifts, Walser also charges Washington with “inflicting serious wounds to our hemispheric relationships” by failing to approve a trade pact with Colombia or drop a tariff on Brazilian ethanol.

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Reheating Russo-Cuban Relations AS/COA Online 07/08/08

Russian Prime Minister Putin greeted by Cuban leaders Fidel and Raúl Castro. (AP Images)

Recent twists and turns in U.S.-Russia relations have drawn comparisons to Cold War era tensions, sparked in particular by Washington’s plans military defense shield in Eastern Europe. During a July visit to the Czech Republic to sign a related agreement, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice insisted that the shield’s construction was not a strategic move against Russia, but was instead intended to protect NATO allies from Iranian and North Korean threats. Still, Russian leaders seem unconvinced and, after plans to build the shield in Russia’s backyard were inked, a story arose that Moscow planned to station nuclear bombers in Cuba. The report may have been little more than a rumor, but this week Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced intentions to restore ties with Havana.

In the days between the bomber rumors and before Putin’s call for warmer Cuba ties a Russian delegation headed by Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin visited Cuba. Kommersant reports that Cuban leaders were displeased by the possibility that the bomber story was a means for Moscow to use Cuba as a pawn in a chess game with Washington. Nonetheless, Cuban and Russian officials forged a number of energy and commercial agreements. Most significantly, Russian oil companies gained the right to explore and harvest oil in the Gulf of Mexico. A Stratfor podcast explores Moscow’s intentions to upstage Washington by demonstrating Russian influence in the Western hemisphere. Some Russian military experts say the door could still be open for Moscow to expand its military presence into Cuba. “It is an open secret that the West has been establishing a buffer zone around Russia during the recent years, getting European, Baltic states, Ukraine and the Caucasus involved in the process. The expansion of the Russian military presence abroad, particularly in Cuba, could become a response to US-led activities,” Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy of Geopolitical Sciences, told RIA Novosti.

Russia may also be flexing its energy muscle in the simmering U.S.-Russia dispute; the day after Prague signed the July 8 deal with the United States, crude oil deliveries to the Czech Republic were coincidentally cut off by a Russian supplier citing technical and commercial reasons. As an Asia Times article points out, Russia’s recent deal with Turkmenistan gives it control as the sole buyer of the Central Asian’s massive natural gas reserves until 2028.

The Turkmen deal came just after Russia and Venezuela signed energy agreements during a President Hugo Chávez’s stop in Moscow. During his meeting with Russian President Dimitri Medvedev, the leaders signed a pact that would allow Russia’s Gazprom the right to explore for oil in Venezuela’s Orinoco oil belt. Furthermore, Venezuela has increased its military expenditure fivefold in the last decade, making Russia its principal arms supplier with more than three billion dollars in hardware purchases.

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Fourth Fleet Sets Sail AS/COA Online 07/15/08

The U.S. Navy reactivated its Fourth Fleet on July 12. (Photo: U.S. Navy)

The U.S. Navy officially reactivated its Fourth Fleet in Latin American and Caribbean waters on July 12, nearly six decades after it was disbanded. While the fleet’s goal involves humanitarian assistance and support for counternarcotics operations, its reactivation drew concern from some Latin American governments. With the goal of taming fears of U.S. military intervention in the region, the U.S. Navy reiterated their commitment on building regional relationships and what Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Gary Roughead described as the “interoperability” with partner navies and coast guard services.

The Fourth Fleet was first established in 1943 to protect the South Atlantic Ocean from raids during World War II, then deactivated it in 1950. The new fleet, based at Navy Station Mayport in Florida, will not have permanent vessels assigned to it. Instead, it will plan, coordinate, and deploy all missions within its designated area of operations. “Reestablishing Fourth Fleet allows us to more effectively employ naval forces to build confidence and trust among nations through collective maritime security efforts,” said Roughead at the inaugural and change-of-command ceremony.

But not everyone is thrilled by the fleet’s reactivation at a time when alliances such as the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and the Brazilian-backed Council on Military Defense are gaining support to safeguard the region’s population, biodiversity, and energy reserves. Some Latin American leaders voiced their concerns over the new military initiative; Bolivian President Evo Morales and Cuba’s former President Fidel Castro speculated that the real intentions behind the fleet’s reestablishment involved exercising greater control over Latin America’s vast energy resources.

The United States responded with quick moves to quell such fears. After the administration of Argentine President Cristina Kirchner raised questions about the purpose of the fleet’s reactivation, U.S. Assistant Secretary for the Western Hemisphere Thomas Shannon traveled to Buenos Aires. During a joint press conference with Kirchner, he said that U.S. will inform Latin American countries on the fleet’s naval activities in a timely fashion, reports Mercopress.

During a speech at AS/COA’s Latin American Cities Conference in São Paulo last week, U.S. Ambassador to Brazil Clifford Sobel raised the fact that some had suggested the fleet could have more agressive purposes. “Let me be very clear. Let me use this forum to say it is not true,” asserted Sobel, saying the fleet will have no offensive capabilities.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez was among those who cataloged the Fourth Fleet’s activity in southern waters as a threat and ratified his support for the Council of Military Defense. However, his comments come as Venezuela appears prepared to step up its own weapons purchases. Chávez bought 24 Sukhoi air-fighters, an air defense missile system, and multiple attack and transport helicopters from Russia since 2005. He plans to visit Russia on July 22 to further bolster Venezuela’s military arsenal as well as to improve energy and economical bilateral cooperation. In the last decade, Venezuela’s military expenditure has increased fivefold, pushing the country into the list of the top 25 arms importers in the world, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

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Betancourt’s Liberation Stirs the Andes AS/COA Online 07/08/08

Emotional Ingrid Betancourt at a reception in Paris on July 4. (AP Images)

In a bloodless rescue mission, Colombian military freed ex-presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt, three American military contractors, and 11 soldiers held hostage by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The military operation was planned for several months leading up to July 2, when military intelligence cheated guerrilla commanders in charge of safeguarding the hostages, making them believe that FARC’s new commander Alfonso Cano wanted to move the prisoners to a different location using the transportation services provided by an unspecified NGO. Trained special commandos posed as NGO workers and journalists, fooling even the hostages and leading to a successful rescue.

As the dust settles after the dramatic rescue, speculation grows over its political impact. Following the raid, President Álvaro Uribe’s approval ratings shot up from an already high 73 percent to 91 percent, according to a July 6 poll (PDF) published by El Espectador. If elections were held this week, Uribe would win a third term by securing 79 percent of the votes. Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos’ approval ratings jumped from 47 percent to 76 percent, giving him clout as a possible candidate who would likely gain Uribe’s endorsement should the president desist from seeking reelection.

A third term for Uribe would require a national referendum to change the constitution, which the president could well win, given his popularity. But the possibility raises concerns that such a move could weaken Colombia’s democratic institutions, writes Harvard University’s Edward Schumacher-Matos. An analysis by New York University’s Patricio Navia recommends that Uribe crown his achievements by voluntarily stepping down in 2010.

Meanwhile, the rescue brings another strong possible candidate into the fold: Betancourt. The El Espectador poll shows that 50 percent of Colombians support her presidential nomination. In an interview with Semana, Betancourt stated she remains undecided about whether to pursue a nomination. Yet she also said, “La política es mi vida,” (“Politics is my life.”) leaving the door open to a presidential run.

The Franco-Colombian politician also finds herself riding an international wave of good will. Chilean President Michelle Bachelet called for Betancourt’s nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize. She has already met with the French president and the Pope and she has drawn comparisons to former South African President Nelson Mandela.

Ingrid Betancourt was the highest profile hostage retained by the FARC, and her freedom strikes another blow to the ailing rebel group. The FARC still has more than 700 hostages in their power, but they have arrived at a particularly weak moment. The fragmented communication between guerrilla fronts and its central command, massive desertions, and the recent death of three members of the Secretariat—including its founder Manuel Marulanda—have engulfed its militants with pessimism. Read an AS/COA analysis examining the FARC’s dwindling strength.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez also appears to have taken a hit as a result of the hostage release. In the past months, he used his mediation efforts with FARC as a political spear to attack Uribe. But with the high-level hostages out of the game, Chavez finds his regional influence as a power broker weakened while Uribe’s grows. An analysis by the Financial Times’ Richard Lapper takes a closer look at the Latin American power shift resulting from the rescue.

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