Electoral Rifts in Bolivia AS/COA Online 06/26/08

Winds of autonomy grow stronger in Bolivia. (AP Images)

On June 22, the gas-rich Bolivian province of Tarija voted overwhelmingly in favor of greater provincial autonomy from the central government, joining the Santa Cruz, Beni, and Pando provinces in direct political confrontation with President Evo Morales’ administration. This raises the political stakes even higher for the August 10 recall referendum, which will determine whether Morales and regional governors stay in office.

Wealthy provinces want to directly manage the profits derived from their natural gas exports—86 percent of Bolivia’s reserves are held by Santa Cruz and Tarija alone—rather than continue the current system of sending them to the central government for redistribution.

Bolivia’s National Electoral Court (CNE) declared all the autonomy votes illegal as they were not approved by Congress but rather by the region’s prefect (governor), in violation of the current constitution.

Adding to the controversy, the day after the Tarija vote five governors (from Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, Tarija, and Cochabamba) issued a statement saying they would not host the August 10 recall referendum mandated by the CNE unless the ballot includes recognition for the autonomy statutes. Morales condemned the statement, arguing that the governors themselves demanded a recall vote at the end of 2007, a movement he supported and Congress approved on May 8. He questioned the real motives behind the governors’ reversal on the recall vote, saying “they want to keep stealing money that belongs to all Bolivians.”

Both Morales’ political party, Movement for Socialism (MAS), and the opposition-led Podemos party reiterated their support for the recall vote and instructed the governors to respect the constitution. Senator Antonio Pedrero (MAS) emphasized that the opposition pushed hard for the recall vote in order to challenge Morales, and now must follow through on its plan.

The referendum stipulates Morales must call for early presidential elections if he gets more “no” votes than the 1.5 million votes that elected him in 2005. In addition, the percentage of those “no” votes must be also higher than the historical 53.7 percent he attained when elected. The same rules apply for the vice president and the regional governors, with the caveat that if they lose the recall vote, they must vacate their offices immediately and Morales must designate an interim governor until new state elections are held.

Morales launched a publicity campaign to highlight the achievements of his administration and he expects to receive the more than 53 percent of the vote required to stay in office. According to Agencia Bolivariana de Información, Governors Ernesto Suárez of Beni and Rubén Costas of Santa Cruz also expect to win the confidence vote. In contrast, Pando’s Leopoldo Fernández, Cochabamba’s Manfred Reyes, and Tarija’s Mario Cossío risk losing their posts.

The CNE invited international observers from more than 17 countries to guarantee transparency in the electoral process. Chuquisaca is the only region whose governor will not be facing a confidence vote, though they will still vote on the president and vice president. Its governor resigned and an election will be held on June 29.

Tensions have mounted as Bolivians get closer to the recall vote date, spurring brief outbreaks of violence. Militants of a pro-autonomy movement called Unión Juvenil Cruceñista (UJC) seized a toll station on a Santa Cruz highway, clashing with police and leaving policemen injured and several UJC members arrested. The Santa Cruz government condemned the use of violence by the UJC in an effort to thwart announced violent demonstrations against several governmental buildings and offices.

Read an exclusive AS/COA interview with OAS Secretary General José Miguel Insulza on the role of the agency as peace broker in Bolivia’s political conflict. Read AS/COA’s coverage of the ongoing Bolivian crisis.

Editor’s note: The original article incorrectly stated that to remain in office, Morales must attain more than 54 percent of the votes in the August 10 referendum–he won 53.7 percent of the votes during the 2005 presidential election. However, the referendum works such that he will only step down if more than 53.7 percent of the electorate votes against him retaining office, and those ballots surpass the 1.5 million votes he obtained when elected.

Updated July 1, 2008

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Mexico Revamps Its Judicial System AS/COA Online 06/19/08

President Calderón signs the judicial reform at Palacio Nacional in Mexico City.

Earlier this week, Mexican President Felipe Calderón signed a constitutional amendment designed to reform his country’s antiquated judicial system. Experts hail the reform as a major step forward in terms of rule of law in Mexico; new laws guarantee presumption of innocence, public and oral trials, and access to qualified defense lawyers.

Under prior law, those accused of a crime are presumed guilty in Mexico. With the reform, an investigation will precede detention and defendants are considered innocent until proven otherwise. Representative César Camacho, a strong supporter of the reform before Mexico’s Congress, argued that—according to the previous law—the country’s judicial system had become taxed; roughly 90,000 suspects remain incarcerated without a formal sentence. The reform also changes the manner in which trials will be conducted, replacing closed-door hearings with U.S.-style public and oral trials in an effort to ensure transparency and the opportunity to fair legal representation. Such changes require training for judges and court employees, as well as a complete physical makeover of the courts to accommodate the new proceedings style.

The judicial reform evolved from a proposal by Calderón that aimed to combat organized crime. Under the initial proposal, police and security forces could conduct raids and home searches without a permit from a judge under the assumption of illicit activities. As part of efforts to widen the reform, Congress vested municipal and state agencies with the authority to fight organized crime—a task previously in the hands of the federal government.

But even as the reform seeks to create a more transparent, fair judiciary, it is not free of controversy. A provision known as arraigo allows detention of organized crime suspects for up to 80 days without formal charges. The measure sparked an outcry from human rights organizations. Human Rights Watch describes the detention period as “the longest of its kind in any Western democracy,” and that it violates “protections against arbitrary detention enshrined in international law.”

Another challenge rests in the need to reeducate career lawyers and revamp law school curriculums to reflect systemic change, as well as to strengthen forensic investigation agencies. The next step for the reform package rests with state legislatures, who must ratify and enforce the measure. Implementation is expected to be gradual with a deadline for the new rules to be fully operational nationwide by 2016.

Mexico may be able to draw some insight from the experience with judicial reform in Colombia, where new laws were implemented in 2005 and national coverage achieved in December 2007. An academic study conducted after the reform’s first year in place showed an improvement in the number of cases processed by the courts. The survey also argues that without the proper academic, technical, and forensic tools, courts may not administer justice effectively and may perpetuate impunity. However, Colombian authorities reported positive results in the legal system’s performance: In 2007, courts processed more than 2.7 million cases across nearly the entire country.

Read AS/COA’s Rule of Law Working Group report, which discusses how to improve and strengthen the rule of law in the Americas.

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Canada’s Latin American Ties AS/COA Online 06/12/08

Chilean President Bachelet and Canadian Prime Minister Harper met this week in Ottawa.

In the last month, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s administration has scored major commercial deals with Peru and Colombia, and celebrated its successful Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Chile. Harper’s administration has pursued a policy of reengagement with Latin America, seeking to support development in the region. “The Canadian experience shows that, over the long term, there is really no better way to boost living standards than with free trade, ” Harper said in a November 2007 interview with Americas Quarterly.

During this week’s visit by Chilean President Michelle Bachelet to Canada, the two leaders celebrated the tenth anniversary of the countries’ bilateral FTA and signed additional agreements. Harper called the pact a “a model of successful partnership in our hemisphere.” Trade in goods between Chile and Canada grew 226 percent over the past decade, reaching $2.34 billion last year. In an effort to replicate the Canadian-Chilean success, Harper¹s government is betting on new deals with other Latin American countries.

Peru’s new FTA with Canada, signed on May 29, has supported the Andean country’s growing presence in global markets by securing a commercial partner to maintain its enviable GDP growth: 9.2 percent in the first quarter of 2008 alone. It is expected that Canadian agricultural and beef industries will gain immediate access to Peruvian markets. On the flip side, Peruvian dairy products, poultry, and refined sugar will enter Canada almost duty-free.

Canada and Colombia have also moved toward solidifying their trade partnership. Officials from both countries completed negotiating an FTA on June 7. The deal must be ratified by legislative bodies from both countries in order to take effect. If the deal wins approval, Colombian farmers will benefit with tariff reductions on products including beef, flowers, sugar, and ethanol.

The completed negotiations come at a time when a U.S.-Colombia trade pact has stalled in U.S. Congress. Although U.S. markets have historically been the main recipients of Latin American exports, obstacles to the passage of U.S. trade deals in recent months—including with Colombia and Panama—opens the door for Canada to improve ties with Latin America. As the Financial Times reports, “While Washington’s efforts to make trade inroads in Latin America have stumbled lately, Canada has quietly moved to steal a march.”

Ottawa hopes to become less reliant on the slowing U.S. economy. After a weak first quarter performance in 2008—including growing unemployment, negative GDP growth, and rising inflation—Canada has more motives than ever to strengthen commercial ties with new hemispheric partners and is exploring FTAs with Panama, the Dominican Republic, the Caribbean Community, and the Central American Four (El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua).

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A Series of Venezuelan Shifts AS/COA Online 06/09/08

Byline shared with Carin Zissis.

President Chávez announced a series of policy shifts over the weekend. (AP Images)

In recent days, Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez appeared to backpedal on several policy fronts, from foreign policy to the economy to intelligence. Chávez, who gained international media attention in 2006 for a UN General Assembly speech in which he referred to President George W. Bush as “the devil,” said Saturday he would like “to work together with the next U.S. president.” He agreed to revise a new intelligence law widely condemned by human rights groups for potentially laying the groundwork to create a nation of informers. His government, facing rampant inflation, plans to announce a new set of economic measures and to open up three areas of the nationalized Orinoco oil belt to private companies for development.

Perhaps the most surprising of Chávez’s weekend remarks came when he urged Colombian rebels to end their conflict with that country’s government and to release all hostages. “At this moment in Latin America, an armed guerilla movement is out of place,” he said of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Chávez’s remarks came a day after Colombian authorities arrested a Venezuelan national guard officer carrying 40,000 AK-47 rifle cartridges. Captured in eastern Colombia, the weaponry may have been intended for FARC use. Bogota welcomed Chávez’s message for the rebel group, which came following weeks of tension over a captured laptop that tied Venezuelan president to the FARC, considered a terrorist group by Colombia, the United States, Canada, and the European Union.

Chávez’s recommendations regarding the FARC inspired hope that the embattled rebels may be forced one step closer to ending four decades of civil strife. In recent weeks, the group acknowledged the March death of leader Manuel Marulanda. Several members of the FARC’s senior leaders have been arrested or killed in recent months and the group faced large scale desertion.

Yet, in spite of the series of shifts the Venezuelan president in recent days, Chávez’s critics say he continues to attempt to silence the opposition in his own country. Thousands protested in Caracas over the weekend against a “blacklist” barring roughly 400, mostly opposition politicians from running in November municipal elections.

Furthermore, although Chávez said he will seek changes to a controversial intelligence law, his government plans to revise rather than revoke it. Under the law, new espionage agencies received authorization to request support from civilians while gathering intelligence inside and outside Venezuela. Critics say this could turn Venezuelan citizens into whistleblowers forced to inform on neighbors or family members. Venezuelan Supreme Court Justice Blanca Rosa Mármol de León expressed her concern that the law served as “the first step towards creating a society of informers.”

Meanwhile, Venezuelan journalists engaged in uncovering Venezuelan political corruption find themselves under mortal threat. After leaving his office June 2 at the Caracas-based daily newspaper Reporte Diario de la Economía, Pierre Fould Gerges was slain at a gas station by an unidentified gunman on a motorcycle. He sustained 17 gunshot wounds yet none of his belongings were stolen. The evidence suggests the crime was related to the more than 50 death threats received over the past year by his brother—and the newspaper’s president—Tannous Gerges. The victim was driving his brother’s car.

While the motives for the murder remain unclear, close legal advisors to the Reporte Diario de la Economía believe it has much to do with the newspaper’s frequent coverage of government corruption, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. The Financial Times reports about a current parliamentary investigation into whether members of Chávez’s family used public funds to aquire farmland in the state of Barinas.

Read a recent AS/COA Online interview with Venezuelan student activist Yon Goicoechea.

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