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El Ejemplo Peruano
La mañana del lunes 13 de Julio marcó un hito para las operaciones bursátiles del Perú. Por primera vez en la historia, el ministro de Economía de ese país Luis Carranza le dio el campanazo de apertura a la bolsa de Nueva York e introdujo formalmente un fondo especial donde se cotizarán 25 acciones diferentes de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima en Wall Street. Estas suenan como excelentes noticias para ese país, pero en realidad solo un reducido grupo de la población es el que se está bañando en agua rosada. Mientras tanto, por lo menos un tercio de los Peruanos no ven casi ni un centavo de las ganancias que generan esos grandes negocios.
El Perú ha demostrado en este último decenio un crecimiento económico envidiable en la región y sin importar lo precario de la economía mundial. En el 2008 logró que su Producto Interno Bruto creciera el 9.8 por ciento, de acuerdo al Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI). Con este impresionante resultado, Lima acumula casi ocho años de crecimiento positivo ininterrumpidos. En contraste, el INEI tambien reporta que el índice de pobreza solo disminuyó en un 3.1 por ciento para alcanzar un 36,2 por ciento en el 2008. Esto significa que la pujante actividad económica que vive el país y sus beneficios le llega a cuenta gotas a los mas pobres, que son aproximadamente 10.5 millones de una población que sobrepasa ya los 29 millones.
Por eso no es de sorprenderse los recientes disturbios en la zona Amazónica de Bagua. Cuando el gobierno del Presidente Peruano Alan García pretendió implementar unos decretos de reforma agraria que agilizaban la expropiación de tierras sin cultivar por mas de dos años y entregarlas a inversionistas privados, se le prendió un polvorín de marca mayor. Primero, el gobierno nunca consultó con los dueños de esas tierras que por herencia cultural siempre han sido las comunidades indígenas. Segundo, los niveles de pobreza en las zonas rurales del Perú sobrepasan el 64 por ciento y con el gobierno amenazando en quitarles sus tierras era de esperarse una respuesta tan violenta. El saldo de campesinos muertos sobrepasa los 30 y agentes de policía llegan a los 22. Por último, el conflicto desencadenó una crisis ministerial que cobró la curul del ahora ex Primer Ministro Yehude Simon, quien fue reemplazado por Javier Velásquez Quesquén y la derogación de los controversiales decretos. Así mismo, García vio desplomarse su ya débil popularidad al obtener solo un 21 por ciento de aprobación de su mandato en las últimas encuestas.
Además, el renacimiento de el grupo guerrillero Sendero Luminoso que ahora opera como un cartel cocainero en una extensa zona selvática al sur de ese país tambien tiene a muchos en vilo. Cabe recordar que después de la captura de su jefe máximo Abimael Guzmán en 1992 por el gobierno del ahora infame ex presidente Alberto Fujimori, el movimiento se vino a pique. Desde la cárcel, Guzmán propuso una desmovilización que no todos sus secuaces aceptaron. La mano dura de Fujimori alentada por las mejoras económicas que vivió el Perú al principio de los años noventa terminó por debilitar al grupo.
Programas de interdicción y fumigación fomentadas por los Estados Unidos a finales del siglo pasado en la región y políticas como la de seguridad democrática del Presidente Colombiano Álvaro Uribe a principios de esta década, hizo que muchos de los negocios con narcóticos de la guerrilla de las FARC, se trastearan mas al sur. Precisamente hacia las selvas del Perú (además de las selvas en Brasil y Ecuador) donde se encontraban los pocos elementos del Sendero Luminoso que nunca se desmovilizaron. Ahora el tráfico de coca le ha inyectado fondos y nueva vida a ese grupo. Es triste ver como la población campesina de esas regiones quedan de nuevo atrapada entre la espada y la pared, y a merced del fuego cruzado entre los forajidos y el ejército. Esta es una realidad tambien muy familiar para millones de campesinos Colombianos.
Algunas conclusiones prácticas para nuestros hermanos Peruanos, para el gobierno Colombiano, y porqué no, para el creciente sonajero de precandidatos presidenciales. No importa que tan bien le vaya al gobierno en sus metas macroeconómicas si ese manojo de cifras no se traducen en oportunidades tangibles de trabajo y bienestar para la gente pobre de campos y ciudades. Si no se comprometen recursos serios para programas de reinserción y desmovilización, es casi fijo que excombatientes y raspachines vuelven al monte a plantar coca y a alquilarse al mejor postor. Por último, y desafortunadamente, un campanazo en Wall Street todavía significa lo mismo para millones que todavía viven en la pobreza en muchos países Latinoamericanos: prácticamente nada.
Venezuela’s Oil Diplomacy May Dim AS/COA Online 01/08/09
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| Citgo oil delivery to a low income house in Philadelphia. (AP Images) |
Crude oil prices continue to fall, forcing countries such as Venezuela that rely heavily on oil exports to rethink their 2009 spending priorities. Earlier this week, the nonprofit organization Citizens Energy headed by U.S. Congressman Joseph P. Kennedy II (D-MA) announced that Citgo—the U.S.-based subsidiary owned by Venezuela—would curtail its fuel assistance program for low-income Americans. Two days later, Citgo and the government of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez asserted that the program, which last year provided assistance to some 200,000 households in 23 states, would remain in place.
The reversal raised questions about whether Chávez’s plan to continue the program represents a costly political investment at a time when oil prices hover around the $40 per barrel mark. Venezuela’s Central Bank announced on January 8 that inflation reached 30.9 percent in 2008, the highest in more than 10 years. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s ViewsWire explains that Chávez “has his eyes more on the ballot box than on his purse strings.” The analysis argues that, as he plans to call for a national referendum that would allow him to seek unlimited reelection, he must maintain his support base among the poor through social programs.
Yet, to strengthen its balance sheet, Caracas may find that it must cut back social programs that extend beyond its border, such as fuel assistance programs. A Stratfor podcast explains that “it is practically impossible” for the Chávez government to avoid cutting social programs, with cheap oil programs facing the greater risk. The report also suggests that, before reducing popular subsidies on medicines and gasoline, Venezuela may increase sales taxes, default on government contractor’s compensation, or even halt payments on previous nationalization deals. An analysis by RGE’s EconoMonitor reports that even if average oil prices float around $50 per barrel in 2009 and spending levels mirror those of 2008, Venezuela’s fiscal budget may fall from a surplus of 0.7 percent last year to a 5.5 percent deficit in 2009. For now, they may rely on cash reserves that stand at roughly $38 billion, but risk a ratings downgrade if those reserves are depleted. “Venezuela’s government is stuck. It needs to maintain spending to ensure political support, but it may find it harder to access needed funds,” write RGE Analysts Italo Lombardi and Rachel Ziemba.
Left-leaning Upside Down World recognizes that “Venezuela has reportedly not been keeping up with current [Petrocaribe] quotas” and other initiatives like the Bolivarian Alternative of the Americas Banco del Sur, Petroamerica, and Petroandina have stalled. Through the Petrocaribe cooperation agreement, Venezuela has provided cheap oil with preferential payment terms to 16 Caribbean countries since 2005. (Although Cuba is not part of the pact, Caracas also supplies Havana with 100,000 barrels per day plus contracts to boost Cuban refining capacity.) To ease worries over Venezuela’s ability to continue supplying affordable oil, Dominican Republic President Leonel Fernández in December offered a reassurance that Petrocaribe provides elasticity on purchases and payments to the countries receiving fuel shipments and emphasized Chávez’s commitment to keep the agreement afloat. In an op-ed for the Jamaican newspaper Gleaner, University of the West Indies Lecturer Robert Buddan underlines the importance of the pact for Jamaica, saying “Petrocaribe stands out as the best example of the benefits of regional cooperation.” Former Attorney General of Grenada Lloyd Noel, writing for Caribbean Net News, recognizes how critical energy cooperation remains but concedes that “Now that the gas and oil bonanza is down to its lowest value for years, Venezuela in particular is no longer as influential in the negotiations as when it was selling crude oil at $140 per barrel as opposed to $40.”
Read a previous AS/COA analysis on how falling oil prices have taken a toll on Venezuela’s economy.
En español.
Recession Strikes Immigrant Jobs, Remittances AS/COA Online 12/12/08
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| Immigrants struggle with fewer employment options. (AP Images) |
In the midst of a financial storm, the U.S. labor market lost more than half a million jobs in November alone. While unemployment affects all segments of the population, legal and undocumented Latino workers have been particularly hard hit. The Hispanic unemployment rate hit 8.8 percent in October, outpacing the national figure of 6.5 percent.
The rising joblessness coincides with slowing remittance rates, delivering another blow to Latin American economies—particularly in Mexico and Central America—that depend on emigrant money flows. Remittances slowed down worldwide from a 16 percent annual increase in 2007 down to only seven percent in 2008. In October, the Inter-American Development Bank forecasted that this year, for the first time since 2000, remittances to Latin America would decrease in value when adjusted for inflation.
Given the circumstances, Latin American migrants to the United States find themselves contemplating the idea of returning home, faced with the difficulty of holding down jobs in hard-hit sectors such as construction as well as stiffer immigration enforcement that includes random workplace raids. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports about Latin American immigrants moving home, and notes that even circular migration across the border may drop as Mexicans return home permanently. A Pew Hispanic Center report from October found that the number of illegal immigrants entering the United States dropped from 800,000 per year between 2000 and 2004 to 500,000 per year in 2007. Additionally, immigration officials claim that tougher enforcement has helped reduced illegal immigration; more than 290,000 illegal immigrants were deported in 2007, which they say has induced others to consider the option of returning home.
Those who return or remain must also contend with economic consequences. NPR covers the struggles of poor residents in the Mexican state of Michoacán receiving fewer remittances from their relatives. The report also envisions problems for local governments if, for example, 10 percent of migrant workers decide to return. “No, there’s no work…there are some serious complications. This is reality,” State Legislator Antonio Garcia says.
However, the Associated Press reports that remittances to Mexico rose by $2.4 billion in October compared with $2.2 billion a year ago as Mexican immigrants sending money ahead of the Christmas season and cashing in on the declining value of the peso. That means more purchasing power in the hands of millions of families already strained by a weak economy. Despite this positive glimpse of recovery, the Economist explains that many workers might be sending home their savings in advance of their planned return.
In the United States, the immigration debate became a lesser issue in the 2008 presidential race and could be relegated to the back burner of Barack Obama’s presidential agenda, given the pressing need to confront the financial crisis. During his campaign, Obama promised to secure U.S. borders, reform existing immigration laws, and “bring illegal workers out of the shadows.” The recent nomination of Arizona’s Governor Janet Napolitano to the secretary of Homeland Security post by Obama is perceived as a strong sign that the next administration will eventually tackle immigration reform, given Napolitano’s expertise in border issues and immigration law.
The Migration Policy Institute recaps the top 10 immigration issues of 2008 and suggests which issues to keep an eye on in 2009.
Read AS/COA coverage on how the financial crisis has hit immigrant pockets this year.
En español.
Read the article as originally published at the AS/COA website.
Carlos Macías Web 