The Americas 2008: A Year in Retrospective AS/COA Online 12/23/08

View a slideshow of the most compelling events in the hemisphere. Also, read an article by AS/COA Online Managing Editor Carin Zissis on the most riveting events affecting the Americas in 2008.

Click the image to watch the photo gallery.

Drug Cartels Move Beyond Borders AS/COA Online 12/19/08

A vigil in Mexico for drug war victims. (AP Images)

Two years after Mexican President Felipe Calderón declared war on the country’s drug cartels, the bloodletting continues to spread. Despite impressive arrests and narcotics seizures, the murder rate doubled in 2008 over the previous year. Moreover, the gangs’ tentacles reach into the highest levels of government down to local police forces. But the drug war’s impact has also been felt well beyond Mexico, with links extending across the Americas, into Europe, and as far as Australia.

Out of fear of the drug war’s overflow, Guatemala plans to deploy several hundred soldiers along its border with Mexico during the next few weeks. In September, Guatemalan President Álvaro Colom accused the cartels of high-level infiltration after it came to light that his office had been bugged. Analyst Sam Logan at ISN Security Watch describes Guatemala as the “release valve” for the cartels, given its low altitude and proximity to paved roads in Mexico. Logan also points out that, in South America, Peru saw ties develop between Mexican drug cartels and the Maoist Shining Path guerillas. Recent attacks on the Peruvian army in which 15 soldiers and two civilians died were blamed on ex-guerrillas hired by Mexican drug traffickers to “secure their trade routes out of the mountains.” According to a UN report, coca cultivation increased in Peru, Colombia, and Bolivia by 16 percent since 2001.

The connections appear to reach even further south; Argentina has become a drug trade hub, fueling the U.S. methamphetamine and European cocaine demands. Latin American Thought blog’s Eliot Brockner reports on the recent seizure of 1,000 kilos of cocaine at Buenos Aires’ port. The fact that Mexican drug cartels “can use Argentina as an entry (ephedrine/pseudoephedrine) and exit (cocaine) point suggests there is a fairly well-coordinated smuggling ring capable of transporting large quantities of illicit merchandise across South America,” he writes.

The cartels’ links reach beyond the Americas. A Stratfor analysis covers Mexican connections with Italy’s ‘Ndrangheta organized criminal clan, allowing for drugs to be shipped from Colombia through Mexico to the United States and on to Italy. From there, the drugs could be distributed to the European market. Earlier this month, a cocaine bust involving the arrest of three Mexican nationals by Australia’s federal police uncovered that country’s local link to that Mexico’s cartel.

The 2009 National Threat Assessment published by the National Drug Intelligence Center identifies Mexican drug-trafficking organizations as “the greatest organized crime threat to the United States.” With an eye to the problem, the United States released $197 million to Mexico at the beginning of December—the first of a $400 million package to fight organized crime through the Mérida Initiative.

As the crisis grows, so do the calls for solutions. Harvard International Review’s Jason Larkin suggests that, in the absence of decriminalization or results from increased militarization, negotiation with cartels stands as an option, “just as the U.S. has considered negotiating with the Taliban.” In a lengthy article, OpenDemocracy.net writes that “legalization may become the most effective weapon in the arsenal aimed at organized crime…it seems now is the perfect time to give it a try,” after a thorough analysis of the crisis. A Semana op-ed compares the tragedy facing Mexico to the one in Colombia’s recent history. It recommends that Latin American governments come together to coordinate efforts to halt the bloodshed, which could help affect change internationally. A Cox News Service article looks to similar organized crime circles of the past, ranging from Chicago during Prohibition to Italy’s Mafia, and suggests that peace may come through legalization or by fragmentation of the cartels.

El Universal features a multimedia page that tracks the ongoing violence and keeps a complete tally of the war’s victims in Mexico. Read an AS/COA analysis on how gun smuggling from the United States into Mexico fuels the war.

En español.

Read the article as published at the AS/COA website.

Download a PDF file here.

Recession Strikes Immigrant Jobs, Remittances AS/COA Online 12/12/08

Immigrants struggle with fewer employment options. (AP Images)

In the midst of a financial storm, the U.S. labor market lost more than half a million jobs in November alone. While unemployment affects all segments of the population, legal and undocumented Latino workers have been particularly hard hit. The Hispanic unemployment rate hit 8.8 percent in October, outpacing the national figure of 6.5 percent.

The rising joblessness coincides with slowing remittance rates, delivering another blow to Latin American economies—particularly in Mexico and Central America—that depend on emigrant money flows. Remittances slowed down worldwide from a 16 percent annual increase in 2007 down to only seven percent in 2008. In October, the Inter-American Development Bank forecasted that this year, for the first time since 2000, remittances to Latin America would decrease in value when adjusted for inflation.

Given the circumstances, Latin American migrants to the United States find themselves contemplating the idea of returning home, faced with the difficulty of holding down jobs in hard-hit sectors such as construction as well as stiffer immigration enforcement that includes random workplace raids. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports about Latin American immigrants moving home, and notes that even circular migration across the border may drop as Mexicans return home permanently. A Pew Hispanic Center report from October found that the number of illegal immigrants entering the United States dropped from 800,000 per year between 2000 and 2004 to 500,000 per year in 2007. Additionally, immigration officials claim that tougher enforcement has helped reduced illegal immigration; more than 290,000 illegal immigrants were deported in 2007, which they say has induced others to consider the option of returning home.

Those who return or remain must also contend with economic consequences. NPR covers the struggles of poor residents in the Mexican state of Michoacán receiving fewer remittances from their relatives. The report also envisions problems for local governments if, for example, 10 percent of migrant workers decide to return. “No, there’s no work…there are some serious complications. This is reality,” State Legislator Antonio Garcia says.

However, the Associated Press reports that remittances to Mexico rose by $2.4 billion in October compared with $2.2 billion a year ago as Mexican immigrants sending money ahead of the Christmas season and cashing in on the declining value of the peso. That means more purchasing power in the hands of millions of families already strained by a weak economy. Despite this positive glimpse of recovery, the Economist explains that many workers might be sending home their savings in advance of their planned return.

In the United States, the immigration debate became a lesser issue in the 2008 presidential race and could be relegated to the back burner of Barack Obama’s presidential agenda, given the pressing need to confront the financial crisis. During his campaign, Obama promised to secure U.S. borders, reform existing immigration laws, and “bring illegal workers out of the shadows.” The recent nomination of Arizona’s Governor Janet Napolitano to the secretary of Homeland Security post by Obama is perceived as a strong sign that the next administration will eventually tackle immigration reform, given Napolitano’s expertise in border issues and immigration law.

The Migration Policy Institute recaps the top 10 immigration issues of 2008 and suggests which issues to keep an eye on in 2009.

Read AS/COA coverage on how the financial crisis has hit immigrant pockets this year.

En español.

Read the article as originally published at the AS/COA website.

Download a PDF file here.

Uribe and Chávez Ponder Third Terms AS/COA Online 12/05/08

Presidents Uribe and Chávez. (AP Images)

Despite representing opposing political spectrums in Latin America, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and his Colombian counterpart Álvaro Uribe both face quandaries over constitutional amendments to allow reelection bids. The neighboring leaders each command solid popularity ratings, with Chavez’s standing at roughly 57 percent and Uribe’s even higher at about 66 percent. Yet both face the impact of global economic problems that could chill voter confidence. Moreover, Uribe has encountered criticism over how the government handled a national “pyramid scheme scandal” while 2009 forecasts predict Chávez’s Venezuela faces the challenges of slumping oil prices and soaring inflation.

After losing key political posts in the November 23 municipal elections, Chávez asked his political party, the Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV), to support and amendment of article 230 of the constitution and allow him to chase a reelection bid—his second—in 2011. How constitutional experts describe the change illustrates political polarization in Venezuela. El Universal consulted constitutional law expert Gerardo Fernández, who questioned the legality of seeking reelection in a presidential term given that the proposal was rejected by popular vote in the December 2007 referendum. “The Constitution clearly states that when a reform is denied in a constitutional term, a similar initiative may not be taken until the following period. No rejected item may be submitted again to the people’s will because it was expressed already,” said Fernández.

On the other hand, PSUV lawyers and government officials support the modification and a new referendum to ratify it, calling the plan “a people’s proposal to consolidate the revolution.” Analysts believe that 2009 could be a difficult year for Chávez, given that falling crude oil prices could force his government to curtail social programs for the poor. As a result, reports El País, PSUV officials find themselves looking for the speediest way to secure Chávez’s reelection.

During a September 24 AS/COA luncheon, Uribe stated that “Colombia needs to reelect policies, not people.” Yet, while he has not publicly announced his intentions to run for his second reelection, he has done little to discourage supporters’ efforts to collect the necessary five million signatures on a petition to extend term limits. Colombia’s Congress began debating the proposal and contemplate two options: calling for a nationwide referendum or approving a constitutional amendment that would allow Uribe to run for office again in 2014 rather than 2010. According to a poll published by Angus Reid Global Monitor in November, more than 62 percent of Colombians support a third Uribe term while 34 percent oppose to.

El Espectador highlights that Germán Vargas Lleras, leader of the Cámbio Radical party and possible presidential candidate supports the reelection bid only if it is not consecutive. In addition, the President of the Inter-American Development bank and ex-Ambassador in Washington Luis Alberto Moreno voiced approval of Uribe returning to power if seeking office after taking a break for a term, El Tiempo reports. Semana covers how the Colombian political landscape could rearrange itself given that Uribe might not participate in the 2010 presidential campaign.

In a photo essay, the Financial Times chronicles Chávez’ 10 years in power since he was first elected president on December 6, 1998.

Read an AS/COA analysis of the recent municipal elections in Venezuela.

Read the article as posted at the AS/COA website.

Download a PDF file here.

Brazil Vows to Curb Deforestation AS/COA Online 12/03/08

A raft in Belem, Brazil loaded with illegally cut logs. (AP Images)

With Amazonian deforestation on the rise, Brazil’s environmental ministry on Monday announced an ambitious plan to curb rainforest destruction. As a UN-led climate change conference got underway in Poland, Brazilian Environment Minister Carlos Minc unveiled the initiative, which would seek to cut deforestation rates by 72 percent by 2017. The plan also offers proposals to increase biofuel production without using more arable land while decreasing carbon dioxide emissions by 4.8 billion tons in the same 9-year period.

During his remarks, Minc emphasized that this voluntary effort puts Brazil in the vanguard on climate change issues, marking a shift from past policies that placed responsibility for curbing global warming on the shoulders of industrialized nations. But the efforts come as the Brazilian government finds itself pressured on one side by conservationists ringing alarm bells with deforestation figures and on the other side by cattle ranchers and soy growers who cashed in on the recent commodity boom.

At the UN’s 2007 General Assembly, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva called for more actions from industrialized countries to curb carbon emissions, praising Brazil’s decreasing levels of deforestation over the course of the three previous years. Then the government’s environmental record suffered a setback when Brazil’s National Institute of Space Research revealed an increase in deforestation rates during the first five months of 2007.

In response, Lula’s government stepped up policing in the affected areas through an operation called “Arc of Fire,” initiated in February. The program allowed issuing of fines, arresting deforestation suspects, and impounding illegal cargo. Yet the program’s launch was followed with controversy over the resignation of former Environment Minister Marina Silva, a respected conservationist thought to have struggled with the perceived lack of political will to halt environmental destruction. She was replaced by Minc, who helped found the country’s Green Party.

Under Minc’s leadership, the ministry launched Amazônia Sustentável—the Amazon Fund—in August. The program involves the international community, drawing hefty donations from countries such as Norway, which pledged roughly $1 billion over the next seven years for sustainable development. Monday’s announcement of setting targets aimed at lowering deforestation served as another step in building support for protecting the Brazilian rainforest.

But Monday’s announcement of setting targets to limit Amazon destruction coincided with new data about rising deforestation rates, which have increased by 3.8 percent compared to last year. The BBC reports on the setback and says high commodity prices for staples like soy and beef served as an engine for deforestation. But the report also points out that estimates forecasted an even higher increase, which could signify that governmental policies have made progress. An analysis by mongabay.com’s Rhett Butler tracks deforestation rates in the Amazon using statistics available since 1988 until the present.

With the new plan to be presented at the UN’s climate change conference, environmentalists evaluated it by offering mixed praise, ranging from “better than never” to “a modest proposal.” NPR offers an analysis of expectations ahead of the conference in Poland.

The UN summit comes on the heels of last week’s environmental conference in Mexico, which brought together 70 legislators from across the Americas in a push to regulate land use. Tierramérica reports that the summit helped create a favorable climate for building a common strategy but warns that the new commission faces a long road in terms of hammering out results.

Read the article as published at the AS/COA website.

Download a PDF file here.