To Run or Not to Run: Uribe’s Question AS/COA Online 05/21/09

President Uribe still ponders a possible third term. (AP Photo)

Colombia’s Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos steps down from his post on May 23 to become a presidential candidate for the 2010 elections. But there’s a catch: He’ll only declare his candidacy if President Álvaro Uribe chooses not to run for his second reelection. In an interview with Caracol Radio, Santos said that “he had the hunch that Uribe may not run” but that the president may not make his decision until October. Moreover, Colombia’s Senate approved legislation this week allowing a public referendum on whether President Álvaro Uribe should be allowed to run for his second consecutive reelection. The president may be delaying his decision in order to make the opposition seem weak and divided, thereby giving his party a boost on election day.

When Semana picked Santos as Colombia’s 2008 person of the year in December, the minister was already acting like a candidate on the road, offering gifts in various communities and inviting journalists to follow. In an interview with Cambio magazine this week, Santos reiterated his loyalty to Uribe and to upholding his democratic security policies if elected. Still, Santos finds himself competing for second place in popularity standings with former Medellín Mayor Sergio Fajardo. Other presidential hopefuls include former Agriculture Minister Andrés Felipe Arias, Ambassador Noemí Sanín, and the leader of the Cambio Radical political party Senator Germán Vargas Lleras.

During a September 2009 AS/COA luncheon, Uribe stated that “Colombia needs to reelect policies, not people.” Yet, eight months later, he remains ambiguous about his intentions. His approval ratings run above 70 percent and polls indicate he would likely win reelection. The Senate bill approving a reelection referendum earlier this week was passed by a 62-5 vote, though more than two dozen members of the opposition refused to participate. The bill needs to be reconciled with one from the house, then evaluated by the Constitutional Court. After clearing those hurdles, the referendum may be scheduled for some point in the fall.

Uribe’s popularity appears to stem from the fact that his administration oversaw the significant weakening of the Armed Revolutionary Forces of Colombia (FARC) and a period of economic renewal. In contrast, his high ratings have not been significantly damaged by recent wiretapping scandals involving Casa de Nariño and the Supreme Court, a cooling economy, or the extrajudicial killings of civilians by members of Colombia’s armed forces. “It may just be that they’re drinking Uribe’s Kool-aid,” comments the Latin American Thought blog in an analysis of recent poll data. The blog also suggests that Colombians place higher value on their security and economic issues than on democratic freedoms.

The idea of a third term for Uribe is a source of controversy for many. The Christian Science Monitor raises the question of whether Uribe is “following [Venezuelan President Hugo] Chávez’s footsteps?” In response, “Uribe has said he is only interested in seeing continuity for his security policies, but he has also hinted that he is the best one to do it,” the Monitor adds. Miami Herald’s columnist Andrés Oppenheimer says that Uribe should not run because “he would lose all moral authority to criticize Chávez and other elected autocrats who see themselves as ‘indispensable men’ and who end up destroying their countries’ institutions. There is no such thing as a good dictator, and Uribe would not be an exception to the rule.” The Economist reflects on the good and bad of Uribe’s two presidential terms but says: “If he doesn’t quit while he is still ahead, history may judge that Mr. Uribe began to undo his own achievement.”

Read the article as originally posted at the AS/COA website.

Bogotá-Quito Ties Still Run Cold AS/COA Online 03/05/09

Ecuadorian soldiers fly over a border area close to Colombia. (AP Photo)

Diplomatic relations between Bogota and Quito remain broken a year after a border standoff. A March 2008 raid by Colombian authorities on a guerilla camp took out the second of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in command and more than 20 others. The attack, made on Ecuadorian territory, also spurred a military buildup by Quito and Caracas on their Colombian borders. Within weeks, the threat of conflict was defused. Still, squabbles continue between Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela, even with mediation by the Organization of American States (OAS).

In recent remarks, Colombian Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos justified the raid as an act of legitimate defense, sparking controversy in both Quito and Bogota. President Álvaro Uribe responded by reprimanding the minister. Santos’ strong statements led some to wonder if they serve as an indicator of his intention to run in next year’s presidential election.

Yet Santos’ remarks did little to curry favor in Ecuador. In an interview with RCN Radio, Ecuadorian Vice President Lenín Moreno said that “it is very difficult” to normalize bilateral relations given Santos’ declarations. The comments drew the ire of Caracas as well; the Venezuelan government issued a statement about the remarks, saying that they threaten the stability and sovereignty of countries in the region.

Meanwhile, Ecuador’s Foreign Minister Fander Falconí criticized Uribe’s government for failing to handle the question of displaced people seeking refuge in and near Ecuador. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) oversees a refugee registration project launched by Quito in December. The UNHCR estimates that some 20,000 refugees live in Ecuador but that as many as 130,00 could need international protection. Additionally, the government of President Rafael Correa has stepped up operations along Ecuador’s northern border by dismantling more than 200 guerrilla camps in the last two years, Colombia’s El Pais reports.

But Colombia has its own grievances with Ecuador’s government. Data obtained from a FARC laptop during the raid raised concerns about links between the guerilla group and Ecuadorian officials. Former official José Ignacio Chauvin, a close aide to former Minister of State Gustavo Larrea, admitted that he met with FARC’s late second-in-command Raúl Reyes seven times, reports El Universo. An editorial in Ecuador’s Hoy proposes the creation of an independent commission to steer Ecuadorian politics away from the dark waters of drug-trafficking influence.

World Politics Review explains that after a year, “[B]oth sides’ failure to make progress on reconciliation may be politically motivated.” The article explains that, while Correa gains support by defending Ecuador’s sovereignty at all costs, Uribe has other matters to deal with; restoring diplomatic ties with his neighbor may not stand as a top priority.

Still, despite the controversy, economic ties appear to stand strong between the neighbors. Colombian exports to Ecuador increased 16.1 percent and Ecuadorian exports to Colombia rose 10.5 percent last year, totaling more than $2 billion in 2008, according to Colombia’s Commerce Ministry.

Tensions between the two Andean nations involved OAS mediation over the past year. In an interview with AS/COA Online, OAS Secretary General José Miguel Insulza likened his OAS role in Latin America as that of a bombero (firefighter) putting out fires across the region. As recently as February 26, Insulza visited Correa and urged reconcilation, to no avail.

A new article by the Economist looks back at raid and calls it a success in terms of inflicting permanent damage to the FARC, saying Colombia paid a small price. Colombia’s Defense Ministry reports on the massive defections facing the guerilla group. Read more about he FARC’s growing weakness and signs—such as hostage releases—that it may be changing course.

Read the article as published on the AS/COA website.

How Correa Weathers Quito’s Economic Strom AS/COA Online 02/27/09

President Rafael Correa. (AP Photo)

Ecuador, facing declining remittances and low oil prices, finds itself confronted with financially tough 2009. But the upcoming presidential elections present an opportunity to redirect voters’ attention to other quarrels picked by the administration of President Rafael Correa. His style of governing has mustered ample support for his political party Movimiento Pais while sparking multiple controversies abroad. Along with his Vice President Lenin Moreno, Correa will get another chance to put his formula for government up for a reelection test, thanks to a revamped constitution approved last August. The presidential campaign begins March 10 with the election following on April 26.

Quito’s short-term financial forecast appears bleak. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts Ecuador faces negative growth of 3.2 percent and, from 2010 up to 2013, experience half the growth rate of the past four years. In addition, the bond default announced by the Finance Minister María Elsa Viteri on February 16 unnerved investors, on guard since December over whether Correa’s government would make payments on what the president called “illegitimate” external debt.

Like most of the countries in the Western Hemisphere, Correa may have to drastically cut spending in 2009 as a result of the global crisis decreasing his popularity levels. Statistics prepared by Ecuador’s Central Bank confirm the downward slope in oil and non-oil related exports, gross domestic product, and remittances. El Comercio reports that international reserves have dropped significantly in the last six months thanks to lower oil demand and prices. Lower inflation rates starting in October stand as one bright spot.

Yet, despite these financial trials, Ecuadorians continue to favor Correa’s administration. A poll by Cedatus/Gallup show that Correa’s approval ratings remain at a solid 70 percent in January. Some of the initiatives undertaken by his government include his calls against renewing the lease for the U.S. air force base in the port of Manta, breaking diplomatic relations with Colombia after Bogota’s unauthorized military raid against guerrillas last year, and threatening Repsol to freeze its assets for non-tax compliance. The Latin American Thought blog offers an explanation of how the initiative to turn the town of Manta into a megaport developed by Hong Kong-based Hutchinson Port Holdings may turn sour as a result of sinking manufacturing numbers in China. On bilateral relations with Colombia, World Politics Review says that after a year “[B]oth sides’ failure to make progress on reconciliation may be politically motivated.” The article explains that while Correa gains support by defending Ecuador’s sovereignty at all costs, Uribe has other matters deal with so that restoring diplomatic ties with its neighbor may not stand as a top priority. To defuse the Repsol affair, a prompt visit by Spain’s Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos on February 25 forged a compromise to repay 20 percent of the $444 millions demanded by the government by a March 12 deadline, Hoy newspaper reports.

In spite of a new occupant in the Oval Office, Quito’s relations with Washington remained strained after Ecuador’s decision to expel the U.S. Embassy’s First Secretary Mark Sullivan, accusing him of meddling with internal affairs. The move was preceded by the expulsion of U.S. official Armando Astorga on February 7 after Washington ended support for a police support program. In a daily press briefing on February 19, U.S. Department of State Acting Deputy Spokesman Gordon Duguid expressed concern and suggested that the United States is weighing whether or not to engage in diplomatic retaliation.

The Instituto Latinoamericano de Investigaciones Sociales in Quito unveiled an analysis of Ecuador’s state of the economy in 2008.

Read this article as originally published at the AS/COA website.

FARC Changing Course? AS/COA Online 02/05/09

Former hostage Sigifredo Lopez embraces his sons after gaining release. (AP Photo)

Colombia’s biggest guerilla group appears to be taking contradictory steps. On one hand, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) released several high-profile hostages in the past week. On the other hand, they’ve staged at least one new bomb attack. Starting last week, they began a wave of unilateral hostage releases, sending home three policemen, an army soldier, and two politicians held for more than six years. During the same period, a bomb attributed by the government to the FARC partially destroyed police headquarters in Cali. The divergent moves have been catalogued as ways for the group to regain lost credibility while demonstrating their capacity to carry out military operations. Some reports suggest that the FARC appears to be pushing the matter of the humanitarian exchange of hostages for imprisoned rebels and possible peace negotiations in the lead-up to Colombia’s 2010 presidential race.

On February 5, the FARC freed the last of six hostages it had pledged to release—Sigifredo López, a former legislator from the Valle del Cauca department and the only survivor of 12 lawmakers who were kidnapped at one time. The rebels handed him over to a team led by Senator Piedad Córdoba and the Red Cross. Córdoba remains the top mediator between the FARC and the government. She also faces heavy criticism for her insistence on direct, peaceful negotiations rather than a military solution to the conflict, which spans more than four decades.

Cambio magazine reports that, at the same time as the hostage releases, military intelligence has intercepted communications among FARC members indicating intentions to conduct attacks as a means to show they can still inflict damage at will. Cali’s police force is investigating if the recent bombing at the police command center was in fact carried out by urban FARC commandos or by an organized crime gang that wants to destroy evidence, El Pais reports. Authorities are also investigating a bombing at a Bogota-based Blockbuster that claimed two lives to determine whether the guerilla group carried out the attack.

After a year that left the group devastated, the FARC may be hoping to gain sympathy at home and abroad. A Los Angeles Times editorial describes the release of hostages as “a stunt intended to revive public support for an unworthy cause.” Over the course of 2008, massive protests around the world demanded the release of all FARC captives as well as an end to terrorist activities. Some hostages freed along with Ingrid Betancourt in the Hollywoodesque “Operación Jaque” confirmed that low-ranking guerrillas feel abandoned by their superiors. Another sign of low morale among FARC troops is the high desertion rate; more than 18,000 insurgents  have turned themselves in since President Álvaro Uribe took office in 2002. In a new interview with Al Jazeera’s Riz Khan, Uribe said that at the same time that “we are winning the war,”  the government remains “totally open and generous” to receiving defectors.

The FARC continues to hold 23 “exchangeable” hostages who could be traded for rebels in prison. It remains to be seen whether the insurgents will stage releases while presidential hopefuls warm their engines for the upcoming electoral race. As a Semana magazine article explains, “The FARC believes that with the liberations they are weakening the policy of democratic security and that if [FARC commander-in-chief] Alfonso Cano extends his arm, negotiation will become a fundamental issue in the 2010 campaign. Obviously, the guerrillas would prefer to negotiate with a president who is not Uribe.”

On January 30, El Colombiano reported that Uribe will not seek a second reelection as president, ending months of speculation. Some voiced concern that a third time in office would damage Colombia’s democratic institutions by focusing power in the figure of just one man.

Read an AS/COA analysis about the FARC’s dwindling numbers.

Read the article as published at the AS/COA website.

Download a PDF file here.

The Americas 2008: A Year in Retrospective AS/COA Online 12/23/08

View a slideshow of the most compelling events in the hemisphere. Also, read an article by AS/COA Online Managing Editor Carin Zissis on the most riveting events affecting the Americas in 2008.

Click the image to watch the photo gallery.