Washington Weighs Cuba Travel Bans AS/COA Online 04/09/09

Cubans await family members arriving from Miami. (AP Photo)

Updated April 13 – A trip by seven members of the Congressional Black Caucus to Havana put U.S.-Cuban relations in the spotlight as hemispheric leaders prepared to meet at the Summit of the Americas. The delegation, led by U.S. Representative Barbara Lee (D-CA), met with the Castro brothers in separate meetings, marking the first official U.S. visits since President Raúl Castro took office last year and for former President Fidel Castro since 2006.

The visit came just before as President Barack Obama turned back restrictions (read a White House fact sheet) for Cuban Americans wishing to visit or send money to family back on the island. Fulfilling a presidential campaign promise, Obama took the action before the Summit of the Americas, which runs April 17 to 19 in Trinidad and Tobago and will serve as the new president’s introduction to many Latin American leaders and, thereby, the hemisphere. Relaxing the restrictions could affect an estimated 1.5 million Americans with family members in Cuba, calculates The Wall Street Journal. El País reports that Cubans hopes to experience an increased inflow of somewhere between $300 million and $500 million as a result of the change.

The changes will also allow U.S. telecommunications firms to bid for licenses on the island as well as for a freer flow of humanitarian goods.

American legislators have gone a step further. Bipartisan proposals making their way through both houses of U.S. Congress seek to lift the travel ban for all Americans. Senators Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and Michael Enzi (R-WY) introduced the Freedom to Travel to Cuba Act. A similar bill in the House drew 120 co-sponsors and calls for allowing Americans “to exercise their right to travel to Cuba.” Another House bill seeks to ease restrictions on selling agricultural products to Cuba.

Washington’s moves on Cuba could end up being a focal point at the Summit, much to the chagrin of the White House. “In a way, we believe it would be unfortunate if the principal theme of this meeting turned out to be Cuba,” says Ambassador Jeffrey Davidow, the White House advisor for the summit. Yet, as The Economist suggests in an article about the upcoming conference, the uninvited Cuba could end up being the 800-pound gorilla in the room.

Latin American leaders expressed their support to end the 47-year-old U.S. embargo in a December summit held in Brazil. “I am unable to understand the continued blockade of Cuba. It doesn’t make any sense,” said Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Reinstatement of Cuba into the Organization of American states (Havana was suspended in 1962) could be another proposal that comes up in Port of Spain. “It has turned out that we are the isolated country,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO) after returning from Cuba on Tuesday.

Some of the warm steps from Washington have drawn optimism in Havana, including from Fidel. In his weekly column, the octogenarian former leader detailed his meeting with the U.S. lawmakers and hailed the visit, making reference to the historical nature of Obama’s electoral win.

But human rights on the island remains a thorny issue, prompting criticism of the congressional delegation to Cuba. A Washington Post editorial decries that fact that lawmakers didn’t meet with political dissidents in jail or visit their families. “The black U.S. lawmakers’ concerns weren’t for the 300-plus Cuban prisoners of conscience listed by Amnesty International or the hundreds of dissidents working from their homes under the watch of a totalitarian regime,” writes Miami Herald columnist Myriam Marquez.

With all the buzz about U.S.-Cuban ties and power shifts in Havana, are changes underfoot in Cuba? As one man interviewed in Havana put it to the New York Times, “Politics here is a sport whose spectators are all blind. Everyone knows things are happening. No one is sure what. So you stop trying to watch.”

Read AS/COA analysis of the recent reshuffling of Raúl Castro’s cabinet.

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Funes Calls for Unity after Win AS/COA Online 03/17/09

Byline shared with Carin Zissis.

Salvadoran President-Elect Mauricio Funes addresses supporters. (AP Photo)

Salvadorans chose leftist candidate Mauricio Funes as their new president in the heavily contested March 15 election. Funes put his first foot forward as president-elect with a call for national unity, vows to jump-start the ailing economy, and a pledge for moderation over radicalism. “There will be no confiscation, we will not reverse any privatizations. We will not jeopardize private property. There is no reason at this moment for fear,” said Funes, who pulled in just over 51 percent of the vote.

The former CNN journalist’s victory could be considered a major milestone in El Salvador’s history as it marks the end of 20 years of presidents from the Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA). Seventeen years after the end of the country’s civil war, the Farabundo Marti National Liberation (FMLN), once a Marxist guerilla group, comes to hold executive power. The Economist reposted a 1992 article online marking the end of the 12-year civil war that claimed 75,000 lives and turned the country into “a pawn on a great board whose far corners were in Angola and Afghanistan.” A GlobalVoices post logs positive reactions to Funes’ win from across the Salvadoran blogosphere. An editorial in the Los Angeles Times says the “peaceful change of power is gratifying.” It also describes the country as “supremely divided and impoverished” and commends Funes for his calls for unity following a deeply discordant campaign.

Despite Funes’ pledges to take a more centrist path—along the lines of Brazilian President Inácio Luiz Lula da Silva—some suggest he could be pulled to the left by members of his party. He has said he does not plan for his country to exit from membership of the Central American Free Trade Agreement. But some suspect that other members of his party, including his vice president Salvador Sanchez Ceren, will seek to reverse market friendly reforms. Wall Street Journal explains that, while El Salvador’s economy has one of the most dynamic private sectors in the region, some business owners worry about Funes’ capacity to govern in tune with some of the more radical members: “Many here fear that the FMLN bloc in the National Assembly, with whom Funes has never had to work on legislation, may not share the new president’s willingness to compromise with private enterprise.” Still, even if Funes finds himself pressured to turn leftward, he will also have to find a way to work with ARENA, which holds a large number of seats in El Salvador’s legislature and could block legislation.

During the election cycle, Arena candidate Rodrigo Ávila brought up concerns about Funes and the FMLN, comparing his rival to Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez or neighboring Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega. Indeed, as a Foreign Policy web exclusive noted, a great deal of the language used by both campaigns “focused on the situation outside the country’s borders.” The article suggests that, although some raised concern about U.S. intervention in the Salvadoran election, Barack Obama’s victory likely helped boost the FMLN as Funes modeled his campaign rhetoric after the U.S. president’s “change” message.

The impact of events beyond the Central American country’s borders could play a role in economic policy charted by Funes. As financial crisis grips the United States, concerns rise over the dependability of remittance flows from Salvadoran immigrants working abroad. Last year, Salvadoran immigrants living in the United States sent $3.2 billion home and 22.3 percent of families in El Salvador receive remittances. The Inter-American Development Bank this week predicted a drop in remittances to Latin America in 2009. Funes himself raised concerns about remittances in an interview with Los Angeles-based La Opinión. He pointed out that these funds represent 18 percent of El Salvador’s GDP, making close relations with the United States crucial.

Read the article as originally published at the AS/COA website.

Venezuela’s Oil Diplomacy May Dim AS/COA Online 01/08/09

Citgo oil delivery to a low income house in Philadelphia. (AP Images)

Crude oil prices continue to fall, forcing countries such as Venezuela that rely heavily on oil exports to rethink their 2009 spending priorities. Earlier this week, the nonprofit organization Citizens Energy headed by U.S. Congressman Joseph P. Kennedy II (D-MA) announced that Citgo—the U.S.-based subsidiary owned by Venezuela—would curtail its fuel assistance program for low-income Americans. Two days later, Citgo and the government of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez asserted that the program, which last year provided assistance to some 200,000 households in 23 states, would remain in place.

The reversal raised questions about whether Chávez’s plan to continue the program represents a costly political investment at a time when oil prices hover around the $40 per barrel mark. Venezuela’s Central Bank announced on January 8 that inflation reached 30.9 percent in 2008, the highest in more than 10 years. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s ViewsWire explains that Chávez “has his eyes more on the ballot box than on his purse strings.” The analysis argues that, as he plans to call for a national referendum that would allow him to seek unlimited reelection, he must maintain his support base among the poor through social programs.

Yet, to strengthen its balance sheet, Caracas may find that it must cut back social programs that extend beyond its border, such as fuel assistance programs. A Stratfor podcast explains that “it is practically impossible” for the Chávez government to avoid cutting social programs, with cheap oil programs facing the greater risk. The report also suggests that, before reducing popular subsidies on medicines and gasoline, Venezuela may increase sales taxes, default on government contractor’s compensation, or even halt payments on previous nationalization deals. An analysis by RGE’s EconoMonitor reports that even if average oil prices float around $50 per barrel in 2009 and spending levels mirror those of 2008, Venezuela’s fiscal budget may fall from a surplus of 0.7 percent last year to a 5.5 percent deficit in 2009. For now, they may rely on cash reserves that stand at roughly $38 billion, but risk a ratings downgrade if those reserves are depleted. “Venezuela’s government is stuck. It needs to maintain spending to ensure political support, but it may find it harder to access needed funds,” write RGE Analysts Italo Lombardi and Rachel Ziemba.

Left-leaning Upside Down World recognizes that “Venezuela has reportedly not been keeping up with current [Petrocaribe] quotas” and other initiatives like the Bolivarian Alternative of the Americas Banco del Sur, Petroamerica, and Petroandina have stalled. Through the Petrocaribe cooperation agreement, Venezuela has provided cheap oil with preferential payment terms to 16 Caribbean countries since 2005. (Although Cuba is not part of the pact, Caracas also supplies Havana with 100,000 barrels per day plus contracts to boost Cuban refining capacity.) To ease worries over Venezuela’s ability to continue supplying affordable oil, Dominican Republic President Leonel Fernández in December offered a reassurance that Petrocaribe provides elasticity on purchases and payments to the countries receiving fuel shipments and emphasized Chávez’s commitment to keep the agreement afloat. In an op-ed for the Jamaican newspaper Gleaner, University of the West Indies Lecturer Robert Buddan underlines the importance of the pact for Jamaica, saying “Petrocaribe stands out as the best example of the benefits of regional cooperation.” Former Attorney General of Grenada Lloyd Noel, writing for Caribbean Net News, recognizes how critical energy cooperation remains but concedes that “Now that the gas and oil bonanza is down to its lowest value for years, Venezuela in particular is no longer as influential in the negotiations as when it was selling crude oil at $140 per barrel as opposed to $40.”

Read a previous AS/COA analysis on how falling oil prices have taken a toll on Venezuela’s economy.

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The Americas 2008: A Year in Retrospective AS/COA Online 12/23/08

View a slideshow of the most compelling events in the hemisphere. Also, read an article by AS/COA Online Managing Editor Carin Zissis on the most riveting events affecting the Americas in 2008.

Click the image to watch the photo gallery.

Recession Strikes Immigrant Jobs, Remittances AS/COA Online 12/12/08

Immigrants struggle with fewer employment options. (AP Images)

In the midst of a financial storm, the U.S. labor market lost more than half a million jobs in November alone. While unemployment affects all segments of the population, legal and undocumented Latino workers have been particularly hard hit. The Hispanic unemployment rate hit 8.8 percent in October, outpacing the national figure of 6.5 percent.

The rising joblessness coincides with slowing remittance rates, delivering another blow to Latin American economies—particularly in Mexico and Central America—that depend on emigrant money flows. Remittances slowed down worldwide from a 16 percent annual increase in 2007 down to only seven percent in 2008. In October, the Inter-American Development Bank forecasted that this year, for the first time since 2000, remittances to Latin America would decrease in value when adjusted for inflation.

Given the circumstances, Latin American migrants to the United States find themselves contemplating the idea of returning home, faced with the difficulty of holding down jobs in hard-hit sectors such as construction as well as stiffer immigration enforcement that includes random workplace raids. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports about Latin American immigrants moving home, and notes that even circular migration across the border may drop as Mexicans return home permanently. A Pew Hispanic Center report from October found that the number of illegal immigrants entering the United States dropped from 800,000 per year between 2000 and 2004 to 500,000 per year in 2007. Additionally, immigration officials claim that tougher enforcement has helped reduced illegal immigration; more than 290,000 illegal immigrants were deported in 2007, which they say has induced others to consider the option of returning home.

Those who return or remain must also contend with economic consequences. NPR covers the struggles of poor residents in the Mexican state of Michoacán receiving fewer remittances from their relatives. The report also envisions problems for local governments if, for example, 10 percent of migrant workers decide to return. “No, there’s no work…there are some serious complications. This is reality,” State Legislator Antonio Garcia says.

However, the Associated Press reports that remittances to Mexico rose by $2.4 billion in October compared with $2.2 billion a year ago as Mexican immigrants sending money ahead of the Christmas season and cashing in on the declining value of the peso. That means more purchasing power in the hands of millions of families already strained by a weak economy. Despite this positive glimpse of recovery, the Economist explains that many workers might be sending home their savings in advance of their planned return.

In the United States, the immigration debate became a lesser issue in the 2008 presidential race and could be relegated to the back burner of Barack Obama’s presidential agenda, given the pressing need to confront the financial crisis. During his campaign, Obama promised to secure U.S. borders, reform existing immigration laws, and “bring illegal workers out of the shadows.” The recent nomination of Arizona’s Governor Janet Napolitano to the secretary of Homeland Security post by Obama is perceived as a strong sign that the next administration will eventually tackle immigration reform, given Napolitano’s expertise in border issues and immigration law.

The Migration Policy Institute recaps the top 10 immigration issues of 2008 and suggests which issues to keep an eye on in 2009.

Read AS/COA coverage on how the financial crisis has hit immigrant pockets this year.

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Read the article as originally published at the AS/COA website.

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