OAS Ponders Cuba’s Return AS/COA Online 05/29/09

A human rights protest in front of Havana’s capitol building. The OAS is assessing Cuba’s reentry, but Washington continues to raise rights concerns. (AP Photo)

As part of the White House’s more open approach to Cuba, the Obama administration made a move this week that could assist Havana’s readmissiont to Organization of American States (OAS). At a May 27 meeting of the Permanent Council of the OAS, the United States introduced a proposal to allow Cuba to eventually rejoin the organization. The move is in line with the warmer tone set by the Obama administration on Cuba; the White House has already eased travel and remittance restrictions for Cuban Americans and recommended restarting bilateral immigration talks. But Washington has indicated that Havana must adhere to the rules set out Inter-American Democratic Charter to gain readmission. It remains to be seen if Cuba will reciprocate by taking steps toward addressing political freedom and human rights issues.

Honduran and Nicaraguan delegations also submitted resolutions to pave the way for Cuba to rejoin. Costa Rica had intended to submit a plan, but one from the U.S. State Department replaced that country’s proposal, reports The Miami Herald. The OAS commissioned a working group to start deliberations based on the proposals and report back to the OAS General Assembly, which convenes in San Pedro Sula, Honduras, on June 2 and 3. The working group is expected to use the proposals “to find a consensus text for an eventual resolution on Cuba.”

The State Department’s decision to submit a proposal comes after the Fifth Summit of the Americas, when a number of hemispheric leaders called for Washington to improve relations with Cuba. Last week, U.S. Senator and Ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee  Richard Lugar (R-IN) said he does not believe Havana should gain instant readmission into the OAS without addressing rights issues, but that Washington must recognize concerns held by other countries at next week’s OAS summit. “There should be a way to harmonize the desire of many of our Latin American allies to reintegrate Cuba into the Inter-American system with the United States’ interest in reforming our policy towards Cuba,” said the senator.

At a May 27 press briefing, U.S. Department of State Spokesman Ian Kelly said the proposal submitted to the OAS “supports the OAS taking steps to initiate a dialogue with Cuba regarding its eventual reintegration into the inter-American system.” Still, the Obama administration has stated that Havana must abide by the OAS Inter-American Democratic Charter to gain readmission. “Any effort to admit Cuba into the OAS is really in Cuba’s hands,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on May 20. “They have to be willing to take the concrete steps necessary to meet those principles.” She made similar statements at COA’s Washington Conference on May 13. “We look forward to the day when every country in the Americas, including Cuba, can participate in our hemispheric partnerships in a manner that is consistent with the principles of the Inter-American Democratic Charter.”

At the same conference, Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) decried the idea of bringing Cuba back into the OAS fold without a dramatic improvement in human rights and democracy on the island. “For the OAS to readmit a regime that engages in this type of systematic suppression of human rights, it would have to rip up its Democratic Charter as a farce.” He also suggested that Washington cuts U.S. funding to the OAS in the case that it allow Havana to rejoin without undertaking democratic moves.

So far, Cuba has not indicated interest in rejoining. Earlier this week, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez said Havana was proud that it did not belong to the OAS, saying: “[T]he OAS is totally anachronistic; it serves other interests, and we feel that our path, Cuba’s path, is one of Latin American and Caribbean integration, without a presence from outside the continent.” However, just before Cuban President Raúl Casto hinted at a willingness to discuss human rights matters with the United States.

Writing for Americas Quarterly’s blog, AS/COA’s Senior Director of Policy Christopher Sabatini writes that, for the Obama administration, it is “better to try to loosen some elements of isolation to further what is the crux of U.S. policy towards the region: supporting the development of independent civil society and improvement in human rights on the island.”

In an AS/COA interview, OAS Secretary General José Miguel Insulza voiced support for overturning the 1962 resolution that ejected Cuba as a member country from the OAS. He also explains that if that happens, it would be just the first of many steps toward Cuba’s full reinstatement.

Listen to the audio of as AS/COA panel discussion on the Cuban diaspora.

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Washington Weighs Cuba Travel Bans AS/COA Online 04/09/09

Cubans await family members arriving from Miami. (AP Photo)

Updated April 13 – A trip by seven members of the Congressional Black Caucus to Havana put U.S.-Cuban relations in the spotlight as hemispheric leaders prepared to meet at the Summit of the Americas. The delegation, led by U.S. Representative Barbara Lee (D-CA), met with the Castro brothers in separate meetings, marking the first official U.S. visits since President Raúl Castro took office last year and for former President Fidel Castro since 2006.

The visit came just before as President Barack Obama turned back restrictions (read a White House fact sheet) for Cuban Americans wishing to visit or send money to family back on the island. Fulfilling a presidential campaign promise, Obama took the action before the Summit of the Americas, which runs April 17 to 19 in Trinidad and Tobago and will serve as the new president’s introduction to many Latin American leaders and, thereby, the hemisphere. Relaxing the restrictions could affect an estimated 1.5 million Americans with family members in Cuba, calculates The Wall Street Journal. El País reports that Cubans hopes to experience an increased inflow of somewhere between $300 million and $500 million as a result of the change.

The changes will also allow U.S. telecommunications firms to bid for licenses on the island as well as for a freer flow of humanitarian goods.

American legislators have gone a step further. Bipartisan proposals making their way through both houses of U.S. Congress seek to lift the travel ban for all Americans. Senators Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and Michael Enzi (R-WY) introduced the Freedom to Travel to Cuba Act. A similar bill in the House drew 120 co-sponsors and calls for allowing Americans “to exercise their right to travel to Cuba.” Another House bill seeks to ease restrictions on selling agricultural products to Cuba.

Washington’s moves on Cuba could end up being a focal point at the Summit, much to the chagrin of the White House. “In a way, we believe it would be unfortunate if the principal theme of this meeting turned out to be Cuba,” says Ambassador Jeffrey Davidow, the White House advisor for the summit. Yet, as The Economist suggests in an article about the upcoming conference, the uninvited Cuba could end up being the 800-pound gorilla in the room.

Latin American leaders expressed their support to end the 47-year-old U.S. embargo in a December summit held in Brazil. “I am unable to understand the continued blockade of Cuba. It doesn’t make any sense,” said Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Reinstatement of Cuba into the Organization of American states (Havana was suspended in 1962) could be another proposal that comes up in Port of Spain. “It has turned out that we are the isolated country,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO) after returning from Cuba on Tuesday.

Some of the warm steps from Washington have drawn optimism in Havana, including from Fidel. In his weekly column, the octogenarian former leader detailed his meeting with the U.S. lawmakers and hailed the visit, making reference to the historical nature of Obama’s electoral win.

But human rights on the island remains a thorny issue, prompting criticism of the congressional delegation to Cuba. A Washington Post editorial decries that fact that lawmakers didn’t meet with political dissidents in jail or visit their families. “The black U.S. lawmakers’ concerns weren’t for the 300-plus Cuban prisoners of conscience listed by Amnesty International or the hundreds of dissidents working from their homes under the watch of a totalitarian regime,” writes Miami Herald columnist Myriam Marquez.

With all the buzz about U.S.-Cuban ties and power shifts in Havana, are changes underfoot in Cuba? As one man interviewed in Havana put it to the New York Times, “Politics here is a sport whose spectators are all blind. Everyone knows things are happening. No one is sure what. So you stop trying to watch.”

Read AS/COA analysis of the recent reshuffling of Raúl Castro’s cabinet.

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Venezuela’s Oil Diplomacy May Dim AS/COA Online 01/08/09

Citgo oil delivery to a low income house in Philadelphia. (AP Images)

Crude oil prices continue to fall, forcing countries such as Venezuela that rely heavily on oil exports to rethink their 2009 spending priorities. Earlier this week, the nonprofit organization Citizens Energy headed by U.S. Congressman Joseph P. Kennedy II (D-MA) announced that Citgo—the U.S.-based subsidiary owned by Venezuela—would curtail its fuel assistance program for low-income Americans. Two days later, Citgo and the government of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez asserted that the program, which last year provided assistance to some 200,000 households in 23 states, would remain in place.

The reversal raised questions about whether Chávez’s plan to continue the program represents a costly political investment at a time when oil prices hover around the $40 per barrel mark. Venezuela’s Central Bank announced on January 8 that inflation reached 30.9 percent in 2008, the highest in more than 10 years. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s ViewsWire explains that Chávez “has his eyes more on the ballot box than on his purse strings.” The analysis argues that, as he plans to call for a national referendum that would allow him to seek unlimited reelection, he must maintain his support base among the poor through social programs.

Yet, to strengthen its balance sheet, Caracas may find that it must cut back social programs that extend beyond its border, such as fuel assistance programs. A Stratfor podcast explains that “it is practically impossible” for the Chávez government to avoid cutting social programs, with cheap oil programs facing the greater risk. The report also suggests that, before reducing popular subsidies on medicines and gasoline, Venezuela may increase sales taxes, default on government contractor’s compensation, or even halt payments on previous nationalization deals. An analysis by RGE’s EconoMonitor reports that even if average oil prices float around $50 per barrel in 2009 and spending levels mirror those of 2008, Venezuela’s fiscal budget may fall from a surplus of 0.7 percent last year to a 5.5 percent deficit in 2009. For now, they may rely on cash reserves that stand at roughly $38 billion, but risk a ratings downgrade if those reserves are depleted. “Venezuela’s government is stuck. It needs to maintain spending to ensure political support, but it may find it harder to access needed funds,” write RGE Analysts Italo Lombardi and Rachel Ziemba.

Left-leaning Upside Down World recognizes that “Venezuela has reportedly not been keeping up with current [Petrocaribe] quotas” and other initiatives like the Bolivarian Alternative of the Americas Banco del Sur, Petroamerica, and Petroandina have stalled. Through the Petrocaribe cooperation agreement, Venezuela has provided cheap oil with preferential payment terms to 16 Caribbean countries since 2005. (Although Cuba is not part of the pact, Caracas also supplies Havana with 100,000 barrels per day plus contracts to boost Cuban refining capacity.) To ease worries over Venezuela’s ability to continue supplying affordable oil, Dominican Republic President Leonel Fernández in December offered a reassurance that Petrocaribe provides elasticity on purchases and payments to the countries receiving fuel shipments and emphasized Chávez’s commitment to keep the agreement afloat. In an op-ed for the Jamaican newspaper Gleaner, University of the West Indies Lecturer Robert Buddan underlines the importance of the pact for Jamaica, saying “Petrocaribe stands out as the best example of the benefits of regional cooperation.” Former Attorney General of Grenada Lloyd Noel, writing for Caribbean Net News, recognizes how critical energy cooperation remains but concedes that “Now that the gas and oil bonanza is down to its lowest value for years, Venezuela in particular is no longer as influential in the negotiations as when it was selling crude oil at $140 per barrel as opposed to $40.”

Read a previous AS/COA analysis on how falling oil prices have taken a toll on Venezuela’s economy.

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The Americas 2008: A Year in Retrospective AS/COA Online 12/23/08

View a slideshow of the most compelling events in the hemisphere. Also, read an article by AS/COA Online Managing Editor Carin Zissis on the most riveting events affecting the Americas in 2008.

Click the image to watch the photo gallery.

Reheating Russo-Cuban Relations AS/COA Online 07/08/08

Russian Prime Minister Putin greeted by Cuban leaders Fidel and Raúl Castro. (AP Images)

Recent twists and turns in U.S.-Russia relations have drawn comparisons to Cold War era tensions, sparked in particular by Washington’s plans military defense shield in Eastern Europe. During a July visit to the Czech Republic to sign a related agreement, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice insisted that the shield’s construction was not a strategic move against Russia, but was instead intended to protect NATO allies from Iranian and North Korean threats. Still, Russian leaders seem unconvinced and, after plans to build the shield in Russia’s backyard were inked, a story arose that Moscow planned to station nuclear bombers in Cuba. The report may have been little more than a rumor, but this week Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced intentions to restore ties with Havana.

In the days between the bomber rumors and before Putin’s call for warmer Cuba ties a Russian delegation headed by Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin visited Cuba. Kommersant reports that Cuban leaders were displeased by the possibility that the bomber story was a means for Moscow to use Cuba as a pawn in a chess game with Washington. Nonetheless, Cuban and Russian officials forged a number of energy and commercial agreements. Most significantly, Russian oil companies gained the right to explore and harvest oil in the Gulf of Mexico. A Stratfor podcast explores Moscow’s intentions to upstage Washington by demonstrating Russian influence in the Western hemisphere. Some Russian military experts say the door could still be open for Moscow to expand its military presence into Cuba. “It is an open secret that the West has been establishing a buffer zone around Russia during the recent years, getting European, Baltic states, Ukraine and the Caucasus involved in the process. The expansion of the Russian military presence abroad, particularly in Cuba, could become a response to US-led activities,” Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy of Geopolitical Sciences, told RIA Novosti.

Russia may also be flexing its energy muscle in the simmering U.S.-Russia dispute; the day after Prague signed the July 8 deal with the United States, crude oil deliveries to the Czech Republic were coincidentally cut off by a Russian supplier citing technical and commercial reasons. As an Asia Times article points out, Russia’s recent deal with Turkmenistan gives it control as the sole buyer of the Central Asian’s massive natural gas reserves until 2028.

The Turkmen deal came just after Russia and Venezuela signed energy agreements during a President Hugo Chávez’s stop in Moscow. During his meeting with Russian President Dimitri Medvedev, the leaders signed a pact that would allow Russia’s Gazprom the right to explore for oil in Venezuela’s Orinoco oil belt. Furthermore, Venezuela has increased its military expenditure fivefold in the last decade, making Russia its principal arms supplier with more than three billion dollars in hardware purchases.

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